The price of SHFE tin broke through the 340,000 mark during the night session, fluctuating and pulling back after the surge. High prices suppressed trading in the spot market. [SMM Tin Morning Briefing]

December 19, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened higher in the night session and continued to surge, breaking through the 340,000 yuan/mt mark before fluctuating and pulling back, closing at 338,950 yuan/mt, up 1.18% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference to brief on recent key work in the commerce sector. At the conference, spokesperson He Yadong stated that China and the EU are conducting consultations on the EV case. China's principles and stance are consistent, and it is willing to properly resolve differences with the EU through dialogue and consultations. Promote the reaching of an overall industry solution, and hope the EU will meet China halfway to effectively implement the important consensus of the China-EU leaders' meeting, truly showing sincerity. On the basis of previous efforts, resolve the issue as early as possible through dialogue and consultations, mutually accommodating each other's reasonable concerns, and creating an open and stable market environment for the development of the China-EU industries. (2) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 26.6%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 73.4%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 46.8%, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 41.8%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 11.5%.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters' production is expected to be relatively stable in December. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, and high prices are significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: Trading in the spot market remained sluggish yesterday, with most traders reporting transactions of only around 10 mt, and a few traders reporting transactions of about one truckload. Downstream and end-user enterprises mostly maintained a wait-and-see attitude, and this sentiment intensified, especially influenced by last night's futures rally.

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